Global PV Module Demand Forecast: 240GW in 2022 Amid Supply Constraints

The global photovoltaic (PV) module market is projected to reach 240GW in demand for 2022.  During the first half of the year, robust distributed PV market demand sustained momentum in China, while international markets demonstrated strong uptake according to Chinese customs data.  From January to May, China exported 63GW of PV modules worldwide—triple the volume during the same period in 2021.

Stronger-than-anticipated off-season demand intensified the existing polysilicon shortage in H1 2022, driving sustained price increases.  By end-June, polysilicon prices reached RMB 270/kg with no indication of stabilization, maintaining module prices at elevated levels.

Regional Breakdown (Jan-May):

    • Europe: Imported 33GW of Chinese modules, representing >50% of China's total module exports

    • India: Imported >8GW modules + ~2GW cells (Jan-Mar) for stockpiling ahead of April's Basic Customs Duty (BCD).  Post-BCD implementation, monthly exports plummeted to <100MW (April-May).

    • Brazil: Imported >7GW Chinese modules, indicating significantly stronger demand vs. prior periods.

Market Dynamics:

Southeast Asian manufacturers gained advantage with the 24-month suspension of U.S. tariffs.  Consequently, non-Chinese market demand is projected to surpass 150GW this year.

H2 2022 Outlook:

Demand strength will persist through year-end:

    • Europe and China enter peak installation seasons

    • U.S. demand expected to rebound post-tariff suspension

    • InfoLink forecasts quarterly demand growth through 2022, peaking in Q4

Long-Term Projections:

Energy transition acceleration in China, Europe, and the U.S. will drive global demand growth.  Annual growth rates are projected at 30% for 2022 (up from 26% in 2021), with module demand exceeding 300GW by 2025.

Market Segment Shift:

While total demand expands, project type distribution is evolving:

    • Chinese policy incentives boosted distributed PV deployment

    • European markets show significantly growing distributed PV adoption, now representing increased market share